The year 2008 did see a modest drop in Brisbane’s property values overall.It is reported by some that in the greater Brisbane region, property prices actually rose 4.5% in the first six months of 2009! Of course, results vary significantly from suburb to suburb. Data however reports that the median dwelling value for Brisbane rose only 0.13% in the 2nd quarter.But there are certain suburbs which have been performing very well even throughout 2008. The best performers have generally been close to the CBD, within a 5km radius. PRD Nationwide research in their May 2009 bulletin report that the inner northern suburbs such as New market and Wilson have been doing the best, followed by the inner eastern suburbs like East Brisbane and Kangaroo point, and then the inner western suburbs like St Lucia and Towing.
It is interesting to note that even in 2008 unit prices rose in certain inner city suburbs. New market had a median growth of 13.2%, Wilson units grew by 13.1% and other suburbs recording over twelve percent growth included New stead, Green slopes, Coordinator and New Farm, again according to PRD Nationwide research.
If this was the case during the general slowdown of 2008, it is certainly possible to make a case that property prices could rise even further. And this is what indeed seems to be happening.
*So Can a Boom Be expected again?*
The Australian real estate market is quite different to the real estate markets of other developed nations, such as the United States and the U.K. The United States suffers from an oversupply of property to the point where some of it is actually being demolished. Australia on the other hand, suffers from an ACUTE shortage of rental property. The United States practiced a reckless lending policy which allowed people who could not afford to repay loans to take loans on at teaser rates. The lending practices of Australian banks have been much more prudent and this has proved very good for the Australian residential property market.
The Brisbane real estate market in particular has some very strong fundamental underpinnings, in our view. Brisbane has a steady population growth of 3% per annual at a time where DEVELOPERS are finding it tougher and tougher to get banks to approve their development projects. What this means in practice is UNDER SUPPLY of new stock combined with INCREASING DEMAND. And that always means rising prices. Wages are now growing again at a healthy pace, according to Craig James, chief economist at Commerce. With the Australian economy now showing signs of rebounding, and property vacancy rates at the very low levels of 1-2%, rising wages, low interest rates, stamp duty concessions, it would be surprising if property prices in premium areas did not continue to rise.
I am surprised to see just how many people are willing to pay to rent property today. Single bedroom units in the Brisbane CBD are renting for more than $500 per week in some cases. Indeed, demand is outstripping supply right across the city, vacancy rates are falling, and rents are rising. Competition for rental accommodation is fierce. There are now a number of suburbs in Brisbane where the cost of the typical mortgage is less than the cost to rent! In this environment, it would not be surprising to see a return of investors into the market. Once this happens, as momentum builds, property prices will feel an upward pressure. This will be tough for tenants, but a real boon for property investors looking to build wealth through residential property investment.
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